REGRESSION ALERT

Matt Duchene

DAL●C●Age 35.0Veteran 35

Pythia Score

-47.3

-1000+100

Regression Risk

74 / 100

Caliber66

The Oracle's Read

The points are outrunning the underlying game, and at this age there's little upside to bail it out — production should slip.

Finishing Luck26

Process Edge6

Role Trajectory19

Age Curve10

Points/602.87

Goals16

Expected Goals14.1

Shots/605.7

TOI/GP16.5

Games57

Career History

17 seasons · MoneyPuck.com · advanced metrics from 2008-09

Season ▲	Team	Age	GP	G	A	P	P/60	xG	xG/60	Sh	Sh/60	TOI	PP
2009-10	COL	19.0	81	24	31	55	2.30	22.5	0.94	180	7.5	17.7	2.83
2010-11	COL	20.0	80	27	40	67	2.65	21.0	0.83	202	8.0	18.9	2.67
2011-12	COL	21.0	58	14	14	28	1.78	14.4	0.92	132	8.4	16.3	2.30
2012-13	COL	22.0	47	17	26	43	2.62	13.3	0.81	132	8.1	20.9	2.59
2013-14	COL	23.0	71	23	47	70	3.20	29.1	1.33	217	9.9	18.5	2.50
2014-15	COL	24.0	82	21	34	55	2.17	20.8	0.82	207	8.2	18.6	2.08
2015-16	COL	25.0	76	30	29	59	2.51	22.1	0.94	200	8.5	18.6	2.62
2016-17	COL	26.0	76	18	23	41	1.77	19.7	0.85	159	6.9	18.3	2.31
2017-18	OTT	27.0	82	27	32	59	2.36	22.4	0.89	190	7.6	18.3	2.49
2018-19	CBJ	28.0	73	31	38	69	3.01	23.1	1.01	172	7.5	18.8	2.41
2019-20	NSH	29.0	66	13	29	42	2.26	17.1	0.92	136	7.3	16.9	2.41
2020-21	NSH	30.0	34	6	7	13	1.45	8.8	0.98	72	8.0	15.8	2.29
2021-22	NSH	31.0	78	43	43	86	3.48	34.8	1.41	229	9.3	19.0	3.03
2022-23	NSH	32.0	71	22	34	56	2.58	20.5	0.95	168	7.7	18.3	2.79
2023-24	DAL	33.0	80	25	40	65	2.91	25.3	1.13	172	7.7	16.8	1.95
2024-25	DAL	34.0	82	30	52	82	3.50	21.2	0.91	152	6.5	17.1	2.46
2025-26	DAL	35.0	57	16	29	45	2.87	14.1	0.90	89	5.7	16.5	2.23
Career			1194	387	548	935	2.61	350.2	0.98	2809	7.8	18.0

Basic stats left of the divider; Pythia's advanced metrics (xG, xG/60, shots/60, TOI/GP, PP/GP) to the right. Plus-minus is not in MoneyPuck data.