REGRESSION ALERT

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins

EDM●C●Age 32.8Veteran 33

Pythia Score

-44.3

-1000+100

Regression Risk

72 / 100

Caliber58

The Oracle's Read

The points are outrunning the underlying game, and at this age there's little upside to bail it out — production should slip.

Finishing Luck29

Process Edge7

Role Trajectory52

Age Curve22

Points/602.45

Goals20

Expected Goals17.6

Shots/605.8

TOI/GP19.1

Games72

Career History

15 seasons · MoneyPuck.com · advanced metrics from 2008-09

Season ▲	Team	Age	GP	G	A	P	P/60	xG	xG/60	Sh	Sh/60	TOI	PP
2011-12	EDM	18.8	62	18	34	52	2.86	17.2	0.95	134	7.4	17.6	2.79
2012-13	EDM	19.8	40	4	20	24	1.91	10.0	0.80	78	6.2	18.9	2.81
2013-14	EDM	20.8	80	19	37	56	2.06	19.8	0.73	178	6.5	20.4	2.72
2014-15	EDM	21.8	76	24	32	56	2.14	18.9	0.72	189	7.2	20.6	2.52
2015-16	EDM	22.8	55	12	22	34	1.95	11.7	0.67	109	6.2	19.1	2.45
2016-17	EDM	23.8	81	18	25	43	1.80	21.6	0.90	197	8.3	17.7	1.78
2017-18	EDM	24.8	62	24	24	48	2.57	19.5	1.04	151	8.1	18.1	1.76
2018-19	EDM	25.8	82	28	39	67	2.44	22.3	0.81	208	7.6	20.1	3.04
2019-20	EDM	26.8	65	22	39	61	2.76	18.1	0.82	172	7.8	20.4	3.51
2020-21	EDM	27.8	52	16	19	35	1.94	17.2	0.95	135	7.5	20.8	3.95
2021-22	EDM	28.8	63	11	39	50	2.46	15.1	0.75	154	7.6	19.3	3.32
2022-23	EDM	29.8	82	37	67	104	3.84	31.2	1.15	201	7.4	19.8	3.65
2023-24	EDM	30.8	80	18	49	67	2.56	24.4	0.93	183	7.0	19.6	3.14
2024-25	EDM	31.8	78	20	29	49	1.99	25.1	1.02	164	6.6	19.0	3.01
2025-26	EDM	32.8	72	20	36	56	2.45	17.6	0.77	133	5.8	19.1	3.37
Career			1030	291	511	802	2.41	289.8	0.87	2386	7.2	19.4

Basic stats left of the divider; Pythia's advanced metrics (xG, xG/60, shots/60, TOI/GP, PP/GP) to the right. Plus-minus is not in MoneyPuck data.